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How Sensitivity Testing works

Ask "What If?" Using Sensitivity Charts

Another useful tool for decision management is sensitivity analysis. Sensitivity analysis allows you to answer many "what if?" questions about your decision model, and to understand quickly which attributes have the most impact on your projects. The Optsee Sensitivity Analysis feature models the impact of a change in an attribute value as well as the impact of changing an attribute's weight in the decision model.

Let's look at testing the sensitivity of the Cost attribute. The goal of an attribute sensitivity test is to model what happens when one attribute changes while all the other attributes stay constant. Figure 1 shows the Sensitivity Analysis Chart for the Cost attribute. This chart illustrates the change in overall value for each project as the cost changes. The bubble positions show the current costs in the portfolio. Note how the SMART Score goes down as the cost goes up (from left to right).

Figure 1: Cost Sensitivity Chart

The Cost Sensitivity Chart shows that for the Japanese Lotus (Point A) to have an equivalent SMART Score to the Le Bon Chateu, its cost would have to rise from $50 to $77 (Point B). Similarly, Le Bon Chateau (Point C) would need to drop its cost from $90 to $62 (Point D) to have an equivalent SMART Score as the Japanese Lotus. The chart also shows that the Gardenville Inn, Italiana and the Blue Crab Grill could never be equal to the Japanese Lotus or Le Bon Chateu in SMART Score even if their costs fell to $35. Thus, these three restaurants are insensitive to cost relative to the Japanese Lotus and Le Bon Chateu.

Now let's look at testing the sensitivity of the Cost attribute to changes in weight (Figure 2). This chart illustrates how the SMART Score of all the projects changes as the Cost attribute weight changes and all the other weights remain constant. The bubbles in this chart are shown at their current weight value in the portfolio (500).

Figure 2: Cost Weight Sensitivity Chart

This Cost Weight Sensitivity Chart shows that only the Italiana and the Gardenville Inn rankings are sensitive to changes in the Cost weight because they will change ranking if the Cost weight moves above 1000 (Point A). The other restaurants rankings are insensitive to changes in the Cost weight in this range.

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